Markets
Market studies
For each of our nine sectors, a synthesis built from public publications: BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as well as public institutions (EIB, European Commission, OECD, IEA). Every figure links to its source. Where no reliable quantified source was found, we say so.
01 / 09 — Infrastructure, agents and vertical applications
Artificial intelligence
All four houses converge: AI has entered an unprecedented infrastructure build-out (around $1 trillion of global investment in 2026 according to Goldman Sachs), whose return on investment remains the central debate. BlackRock describes three phases (build-out, adoption, transformation); J.P. Morgan notes that AI capex still weighs less on GDP than the telecom or shale cycles did.
Key figures
1,05 % du PIB
AI capex weight, vs 2.67% for telecoms in 2000 and 4.75% for shale
JPMJ.P. MorganSept 2025Publications reviewed
- GSGoldman SachsPublished 7 Aug 2026
Global AI Investment Is Forecast to Exceed $1 Trillion in 2026
- AI would account for 1.8% of US GDP in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, 2.8% in 2028; past technology cycles peaked at 2–5% of GDP.
- Consensus 2026 capex for US hyperscalers is about $800 billion.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 5 Aug 2024
Will the $1 trillion of generative AI investment pay off?
- Return on investment is 'the center of all debate'; innovation will come from specialised vertical models rather than infrastructure alone.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 23 Jul 2025
As AI Proliferates, What Comes Next?
- Addressable market framed against the $40 trillion global labour market; each compute cycle is roughly ten times the previous one.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 2025
Bridging a $1.5tr Data Center Financing Gap
- Credit and private markets will need to bridge an estimated $1.5 trillion data-center financing gap.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished 21 Nov 2024
Digital disruption and artificial intelligence (BlackRock Investment Institute)
- Three phases: build-out, adoption, transformation. Private markets are seen as key to financing infrastructure and spotting winners before IPO.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 26 Sept 2025
4 Trends We're Watching In the Artificial Intelligence Investing Space
- P/E of large AI names around 30 vs over 60 at the 2000 peak; strong hyperscaler balance sheets (Oracle excepted).
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗
What Next Kapital takes from it
Next Kapital favours BlackRock's phase 2: vertical applications and enterprise agents, where Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect value creation, rather than infrastructure already funded by hyperscalers.
02 / 09 — The computing of the next decade
Quantum
All four houses treat quantum as a long-horizon, high-disruption theme. J.P. Morgan documents a sharp acceleration of venture funding (investment up seventeenfold in ten years); Morgan Stanley tracks error-correction progress; BlackRock analyses the cryptographic threat and launched a dedicated ETF; Goldman Sachs looks at the Europe–US–China race. None publishes a firm market size: practical quantum advantage remains 'years away'.
Key figures
2,8 Md$ + 1,6 Md$
raised by US and non-US quantum start-ups through Q3 2025, a record year
JPMJ.P. MorganNov 2025> 1 Md$ / an
US federal R&D budgets for quantum information science (FY2022–FY2025)
JPMJ.P. MorganNov 20253 sur 5
executives whose company explores quantum, notably 'quantum AI' (SAS survey, May 2025)
JPMJ.P. MorganNov 2025Publications reviewed
- JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 7 Nov 2025
The second quantum revolution: Unlocking transformative potential
- Current use cases: portfolio optimisation via quantum annealing, chemistry simulation, random-number generation, quantum key distribution; future: large-scale optimisation, post-quantum cryptography, sensing.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 6 Mar 2026
What is quantum computing? (J.P. Morgan Asset Management)
- Practical advantage over classical computing is 'years away'; quantum venture capital requires longer investment horizons.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 29 Sept 2026
Quantum Computing Revisited (Counterpoint Global)
- Larger error-correction systems make quantum information more reliable; logical qubits and logical error rates are the right progress metrics. Scaling and cost-justifying applications remain open.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished 31 Jul 2026
Quantum Computing and Blockchains
- Recent advances have shortened the horizon of a threat to public-key cryptography; post-quantum standards already exist and the industry is moving from research to implementation.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished 2026
iShares Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
- BlackRock has opened a listed exposure dedicated to quantum, a sign the theme is now investable for institutional allocators.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 31 Mar 2023
Can Europe beat China and the US in quantum computing?
- Qualitative analysis of the race between blocs; Europe has scientific strengths but must accelerate industrialisation.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗
What Next Kapital takes from it
The fund's longest thesis (7 to 10 years), consistent with the horizons described by J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Next Kapital targets the building blocks that create value before the universal computer: error correction, cryogenic electronics, software and sensing.
03 / 09 — Robotics, materials and industrial technology
Deep tech
Our sources publish no consolidated European market size for deep tech: the available data mostly concern its financing. The EIB finds that venture capital is roughly six times scarcer in Europe than in the United States and that European scale-ups raise half as much capital as their Silicon Valley peers; in July 2026 it launched an alliance aiming to mobilise up to €80 billion for more than 1,500 scale-ups. On the demand side, Morgan Stanley puts the humanoid-robot market at $5 trillion by 2050.
Key figures
jusqu'à 80 Md€
investment the alliance launched by the EIB Group and EU states aims to mobilise for over 1,500 scale-ups
EIBJul 20265 000 Md$
estimated humanoid-robot market in 2050, with over one billion units in use
MSMorgan StanleyMay 2025≈ 50 000 $
expected unit price of a humanoid in 2050 in high-income countries, vs about $200,000 in 2024
MSMorgan StanleyMay 2025Publications reviewed
- EIBPublished 24 Jul 2024
European tech leadership requires more innovation financing, EIB report says
- Most lead investors in European growth rounds come from outside the EU; when ownership changes, scale-ups are more often bought by foreign groups or listed outside Europe.
- The European Investment Fund has backed almost half of the European unicorns that emerged over fifteen years; AI, quantum and green tech are cited among the fields that would benefit from a narrower financing gap.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - EIBPublished 10 Jul 2026
Europe launches €80 billion investment alliance to scale up tech leaders
- The initiative's first phase backed 15 mega-funds and helped 12 EU-based unicorns emerge; the second targets over 100 funds, including up to 45 mega-funds investing €200 million per company on average.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 14 May 2025
Humanoids: A $5 Trillion Market
- About 90% of humanoids in use in 2050 would serve industrial and commercial purposes; China (about 302 million units) and the US (about 78 million) would host the largest fleets.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗
What Next Kapital takes from it
Next Kapital reads these publications as pointing to a financing gap rather than a lack of innovation: the growth pocket targets deep tech companies when they need to raise large rounds, often after a top-tier accelerator or a European lab.
04 / 09 — Biotech, medtech and digital health
Health
Health combines structural demand with strong deal activity. Morgan Stanley estimates that obesity and type-2 diabetes treatments could reach $190 billion in sales in 2035, vs $79 billion in 2025. The European Commission and the OECD put the EU shortage of doctors, nurses and midwives at 1.2 million in 2022, while a large share of practitioners is nearing retirement. J.P. Morgan counts $138 billion of biopharma M&A in 2025.
Key figures
190 Md$
estimated global market for obesity and type-2 diabetes treatments in 2035 ($79bn of sales in 2025)
MSMorgan StanleyApr 2026≈ 30 %
share of the obese or diabetic US population that would be treated in 2035 (base case), vs about 6% in 2025
MSMorgan StanleyApr 20261,2 million
estimated shortage of doctors, nurses and midwives in the EU in 2022
ECEuropean CommissionNov 2024> 1 sur 3
doctors in Europe aged over 55 and due to retire in the coming years (a quarter of nurses)
ECEuropean CommissionNov 2024> 252 Md$
total value of biopharma licensing and partnership deals in 2025, through Q4
JPMJ.P. MorganDec 2025Publications reviewed
- MSMorgan StanleyPublished 22 Apr 2026
Obesity Drugs Are Scaling Fast
- The conservative case puts the market at $170bn in 2035 and the optimistic case at $240bn; in some emerging countries such as Brazil, generics could cut prices by up to 70%.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - ECEuropean CommissionPublished 18 Nov 2024
Commission and OECD report shows need to further promote healthy ageing while tackling health workforce shortages
- Life expectancy at birth has recovered to 81.5 years on average; the gap between countries reaches eight years and women spend on average five more years in poor health than men.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - OECDPublished 18 Nov 2024
Health at a Glance: Europe 2024
- Joint report with the European Commission: a chapter on health workforce shortages and how to attract, train and retain staff, a chapter on healthy ageing, and a comparison of the health systems of the 27 member states.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished Dec 2025
Q4 2025 Biopharma Licensing and Venture Report
- Biopharma venture funding reached $7.0bn in Q4 2025; 80 rounds exceeded $100m over the year and 9 IPOs raised $1.6bn.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗
What Next Kapital takes from it
Next Kapital retains two drivers: demand for care growing faster than capacity, and large drugmakers that are very active in acquisitions and licensing. The growth pocket targets medtech, diagnostics and digital health, whose regulatory milestones are readable.
05 / 09 — Housing, refurbishment and income assets
Real estate
Housing has become a European priority. The European Commission notes that EU house prices have risen by more than 60% since 2013 and estimates that over two million new homes a year are needed, about 650,000 more than the current pace, at a cost of around €153 billion a year. The EIB Group is raising its housing financing to €6 billion in 2026. We have retained no quantified publication from the four banks on European housing: the J.P. Morgan publication reviewed covers US commercial real estate only.
Key figures
> 60 %
rise in EU house prices since 2013; average rents up about 20% over the same period
ECEuropean CommissionSept 2026> 2 millions
new homes needed each year in the EU, vs about 1.6 million built today
ECEuropean CommissionSept 2026≈ 153 Md€ / an
estimated cost of the roughly 650,000 additional homes to build each year
ECEuropean CommissionSept 2026− 41 %
fall in US office valuations over five years (end-2025): a reminder of real estate cycles
JPMJ.P. MorganFeb 2026Publications reviewed
- ECEuropean CommissionPublished Sept 2026
European Affordable Housing Plan
- Page updated on 15 September 2026. Over €43bn mobilised by the EU budget for housing over 2021–2027 and €10bn more planned for 2026 and 2027; partner financial institutions are expected to mobilise €375bn by 2029.
- About 20% of EU homes are unoccupied, according to the same source.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - EIBPublished 16 Dec 2025
EIB Group doubles its financing to €6 billion for homes, contributing to the European Commission's Affordable Housing Plan
- The EIB action plan rests on three pillars (innovation, renovation, new build); a €400m initiative, Housing TechEU, funds innovation by companies in the sector.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 27 Feb 2026
The next five years: Five ways U.S. CRE will differ from the last five
- Analysis limited to US commercial real estate: office construction starts are down 82% from their peak and the performance gap between segments has narrowed to just over 4 points.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗
What Next Kapital takes from it
The construction shortfall and price growth described by the Commission support demand for mid-market housing and refurbishment. In the yield pocket, Next Kapital favours asset-backed residential and energy-renovation operations, mindful of the correction suffered by offices.
06 / 09 — Energy, efficiency and circular economy
Ecology
The IEA estimates that global energy investment reaches a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, of which $2.2 trillion goes to clean energy, twice the amount spent on oil, gas and coal. In Europe, the Clean Industrial Deal presented by the European Commission is to mobilise over €100 billion for clean manufacturing in the EU, and almost 60% of the EIB Group's annual investment supports climate action and the environment.
Key figures
> 100 Md€
funding the Clean Industrial Deal is to mobilise for clean manufacturing in the EU
ECEuropean CommissionFeb 2025≈ 60 %
share of the EIB Group's annual investment devoted to climate action and the environment
EIBDec 2025Publications reviewed
- IEAPublished Jun 2025
Global energy investment set to rise to $3.3 trillion in 2025 amid economic uncertainty and energy security concerns (World Energy Investment 2025)
- Oil, gas and coal are set to attract $1.1 trillion in 2025; China spends twice as much on energy as the European Union.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - ECEuropean CommissionPublished 26 Feb 2025
Clean Industrial Deal
- An industrial decarbonisation bank targeting €100bn of funding, extended InvestEU guarantees to mobilise up to €50bn, a 24% circular-materials target for 2030 and 500,000 jobs expected.
- The European remanufacturing market could reach €100bn by 2030.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗
What Next Kapital takes from it
In the yield pocket, Next Kapital targets mid-sized renewable, storage and energy-efficiency assets; in the growth pocket, the circular-economy companies that European policy seeks to foster.
08 / 09 — Feeding better, producing differently
Agri-food
Morgan Stanley sizes alternative proteins ($150 billion by 2030) and precision fermentation (at least $30 billion in 2030, up to $120 billion in the bull case). J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs document food-price volatility and fertiliser dependence; BlackRock recalls that more food must be produced in the next forty years than in the past eight thousand. A resilient sector under strain, where technology creates the next leaders.
Key figures
+30 à 40 %
surge in global food prices in 2022; US consumer food prices +20%, with no reversal
JPMJ.P. MorganMay 2024~20 %
share of fertiliser in grain costs; over a quarter of global nitrogen-fertiliser trade transits Hormuz
GSGoldman SachsApr 202640 ans vs 8 000
more food must be produced in the next 40 years than in the past 8,000
BLKBlackRockApr 2023Publications reviewed
- MSMorgan StanleyPublished 25 Apr 2025
Can Fermentation Unlock the Future of Food?
- Two phases: 2025–2027 (whey proteins, animal nutrition) then 2028–2030 (egg, meat and dairy substitutes); about $22bn then $78bn of investment required.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 3 May 2023
Why Sustainable Food Is Poised for Primetime
- Alternative proteins could reach $150 billion by 2030 with about 20% annual growth.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 15 May 2024
Animal Farm (Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest)
- Food-retail margins at their highest since 2000 (about 7%); US farmland valued at $3.5 trillion, about 4% held by non-family investors.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 16 Jan 2026
Climate Intuition: Food security, the fates of farming and food in a warming world
- Qualitative analysis of climate effects on production, soils and agricultural trade.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 1 Apr 2026
How the Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz Could Affect Global Agriculture Prices
- Nitrogen fertilisers are about 60% of global fertiliser use; a supply disruption feeds into grain prices with roughly a one-month lag.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished Apr 2023
How resilient is the food supply in times of crisis? (Ideas Exchange)
- The war in Ukraine affected 6% of the world's direct food supply; food-chain resilience becomes an allocation topic.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗
What Next Kapital takes from it
Next Kapital targets the segments sized by Morgan Stanley (proteins, fermentation) and the answers to the strains documented by J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs: precision agriculture, input reduction, traceability.
09 / 09 — Performance, data and experience
Sport
Sport has become an asset class. Morgan Stanley values the global market at $521 billion in 2024, with $130 billion of additional revenue possible through technology. Goldman Sachs documents cumulative returns of US leagues above 1,000% since 2001; J.P. Morgan puts the four major US leagues at close to $500 billion and notes private equity now sits in one team in five. BlackRock has published no dedicated sector study in our sources.
Key figures
+130 Md$
additional annual revenue (+25%) unlocked by technology adoption incl. AI: ticketing +21%, media +36%, engagement +23%
MSMorgan StanleyAug 2025+1 917 %
cumulative return of NBA franchises since 2001 (14% CAGR); NFL +1,130%, top-10 European clubs +483%
GSGoldman Sachs2024~500 Md$
combined valuation of the four major US leagues' teams; an NFL team is worth about $7bn
JPMJ.P. MorganOct 2025Publications reviewed
- MSMorgan StanleyPublished 22 Aug 2025
The Sports Industry's $130 Billion Ticket
- Only 30% of sports businesses use technology to personalise marketing, vs 92% in retail; ticketing is close to half of revenue.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 2024
Changing the Game: Unlocking New Opportunities in Sports
- NFL media rights: $402m per team in 2023–24 vs $180m in 2012; US online sports betting from $6.5bn (2022) to $20.7bn expected in 2027; sports market estimated at $630bn–1tn.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 5 Feb 2026
What's the Lifetime Value of a Fan?
- Sport is described as an asset class in its own right; the direct fan relationship and lifetime fan value become the key metrics.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 15 Oct 2025
What is behind the growth of private equity in sports? (J.P. Morgan Asset Management)
- Cumulative returns of the four leagues above the S&P 500 since 2014; 80 of the 100 most-watched broadcasts of 2024 were sports events.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 6 Jun 2024
A Piece of the Action (Eye on the Market)
- Controlling stakes in US franchises are worth $1–10 billion; four of five leagues have opened their capital to private equity.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished Oct 2026
Aucune étude sectorielle dédiée identifiée
- BlackRock addresses sport through its private-markets and private-credit platforms, with no dedicated thematic publication in our sources as of 16/10/2026.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗
What Next Kapital takes from it
Franchises are now beyond the fund's ticket sizes; Next Kapital targets what Morgan Stanley identifies as the $130 billion pool: data, smart ticketing, media and experience, athlete health.
Syntheses written by Next Kapital (16 October 2026 for AI, quantum, agri-food and sport; 12 November 2026 for deep tech, health, real estate, ecology and social) from public publications. Institutions are cited as sources only: they are neither partners, principals nor backers of Next Kapital and have not endorsed this content. Figures are reproduced as published; they are neither a Next Kapital forecast nor a guarantee of performance.
Multiples, yields and horizons shown are non-contractual targets: they are neither a promise nor a guarantee. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Capital at risk.
07 / 09 — Affordable housing, local care, inclusion
Social
The social economy carries real weight in Europe: 2.8 million entities and 13.6 million employees according to the European Commission, over €912 billion of turnover according to the OECD. Yet social housing makes up only 6–7% of the EU housing stock. We found no quantified publication from the four banks on social impact investment in Europe: this synthesis relies on public sources.
Key figures
2,8 millions
social economy entities in Europe
ECEuropean CommissionDec 202113,6 millions
people employed by these entities
ECEuropean CommissionDec 20216,3 %
share of EU employment provided by the social economy
OECDDec 2025> 912 Md€
turnover generated by the social economy in the EU
OECDDec 20256 à 7 %
share of social housing in the EU housing stock
ECEuropean CommissionSept 202615 millions
people the EU anti-poverty strategy aims to lift out of risk of poverty or social exclusion by 2030
ECEuropean CommissionSept 2026Publications reviewed
Commission presents Action Plan to boost the social economy and create jobs (IP/21/6568)
Social Economy in Europe
European Affordable Housing Plan
What Next Kapital takes from it
Next Kapital retains a large need and still modest funding: the yield pocket targets affordable and supported housing and local care facilities, with moderate, non-contractual yield targets and impact monitoring.